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The Desk Members toolkit

Model-driven tools for medium- to long-term bitcoin and treasury-company holders: see where the cycle sits, build your own composite, write your own entry and exit plan, and test it against history.

Built for long-term holders. No leverage. HODL, macro entries and exits, or a hybrid of both.

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Strategy Spotlightstrategy.com ↗

MSTR…

STRC preferred…

Strategy BTC…

BTC/share YTD…

…

Strategy figures from strategy.com (primary source) and SEC filings. Official channels: @Strategy · @saylor · michael.com. Education only, not investment advice.

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Signal Zones: the whole cycle in color
Model Builder: your own composite
Entry & Exit Planner, your rules
Strategy Lab: DCA vs zones vs lump sum
Freedom Plan: when could you reach your goal?
Momentum & Trend grid (W / M / Q)
mNAV Radar & BTC Yield tracker
Cycle Clock & halving countdown
All 7 Desk Library PDFs + Saylor Quotes bonus

Members tools are part of the paid membership.

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Signal Zones BTC, log scale, since 2015…

Historically cool (accumulation zone)Historically hot (caution zone)▲ entered / left cool▼ entered / left hotPower Law trend200-week MA

Composite of Power Law position, MVRV proxy, Mayer Multiple, 200-week MA and Pi Cycle, equal weights, 7-day smoothed. Each day is ranked only against the days before it, so past zones use no hindsight. Zone markers use a small buffer so they don't flicker.

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Model Builderyour weights

Presets

Save this setup as

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Your composite today

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Historically coolMid-rangeHistorically hot

Historical study: BTC one year later, by band

Band	Days	Avg 1Y fwd	Median	% positive

Past performance, not a forecast. Overlapping 1-year windows from {start} on, so days are not independent; one cycle can dominate a band.

Entry & Exit Planneryour rules

Asset Style Core %

Entry plan · long-term conditions

Exit plan · long-term conditions

Timing layer (optional, daily)

A timing aid only, used inside the long-term plan above: it never fires on its own.

Plans

Plan name

Import JSON

Your plan, your rules. Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Live checklist BTC

When your rules would have triggered

▲ entry step▼ exit stepaccumulation zonecaution zone

Markers show the first day a condition became true, then at most once per 90 days per condition (long-term pacing). mNAV conditions are checked live only: there is no verified mNAV history here.

Strategy Labbacktest-lite

AssetStart

Monthly amount ($)

Your style

Cool-zone multipleHot-zone multiple

Trim on entering hot (%)Core % (hybrid)

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Results past performance

Strategy	Invested	Final value	Units held	Cash	Multiple	Max drawdown

Monthly contribution on the first trading day of each month, at that day's close. No fees, taxes or slippage. Zones come from the BTC composite (no hindsight). Max drawdown = worst fall in account value from a prior peak. Stocks: split-adjusted closes.

Freedom Plan long-term exit plannersaved in this browser

What you hold today

BTCMSTR sharesASST shares

Preferreds ($ value)Avg preferred yield %

Contributions

Monthly ($)% to BTC% to stocks% to preferreds

Goal

Target amount ($)Target dateMonthly expenses ($)

BTC growth scenarios (per year)

Bear %Base %Bull % Power Law path

Assumes treasury stocks move with BTC at today's mNAV (no change in mNAV or BTC per share), preferreds hold their price and pay the yield you set, dividends are reinvested into preferreds until the target year. No taxes, fees or inflation.

Scenarios, not predictions. Education only, not investment advice.

Your projection

Scenario	Goal reached	Value at target date	Pref. income / mo at target	Income covers expenses

Momentum & Trend weekly · monthly · quarterly

Each cell counts four checks for that timeframe: RSI(14) above 50, MACD(12,26,9) histogram above zero, 12-period rate of change above zero, close above its 10-period average. Green = 3 to 4 positive (trend up), amber = 2 (mixed), red = 0 to 1 (trend down). Cross status uses the daily 50 and 200-day averages.

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

TA OverlaysRSI · MACD · SMA · Bollinger

The chart loads after you unlock.

TradingView chart with RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger Bands(20,2) and a simple moving average preloaded (set its length to 50 or 200 in the chart; the free widget can't preset it, and the 50/200 cross is in Momentum & Trend). Weekly by default; daily and 4H are for timing inside a long-term plan.

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Treasury mNAV Radar

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

The data behind it

Company	mNAV	BTC/share growth

mNAV = market value vs the bitcoin it holds; methods differ by source. BTC per share growth only where filings give both BTC held and share count.

BTC Yield tracker sats per share, from filings

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

BTC Yield

BTC Yield = % change in BTC per (assumed diluted) share over the period. It is a company KPI, not a return on the stock.

Cycle Clock

Model read. Education only, not investment advice.

Halving cycle

Next halving at block 1,050,000. Date estimated from the current block height at 10 minutes per block, so it drifts by days. Past cycles are only four data points.

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