₿ | Free chart
The long view: Bitcoin since 2015
One chart for the big picture. BTC-USD daily closes since July 2015 on a log scale, so a move from $1k to $10k looks the same size as $10k to $100k. Tap the chips to add the indicators traders watch, mark the cycle dates, or compare against MSTR, the S&P 500, gold and the dollar.
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What each line means
- 50-day and 200-day moving averages
- The average close over the last 50 and 200 days. Price above a rising 200-day average is the classic sign of an uptrend; a 50-day crossing above the 200-day is called a golden cross, below is a death cross. They lag by design.
- 200-week moving average
- The average weekly close over roughly four years, about one full halving cycle. In past bear markets bitcoin bottomed close to it (2015, 2018/19, 2022), which is why long-term holders watch it. Past behaviour is not a promise.
- Weekly RSI
- Relative Strength Index on weekly closes (14 weeks, 0 to 100). Above 70 means the recent run-up has been unusually strong (overbought); below 30 means unusually weak (oversold). Bitcoin can stay at extremes for months.
- Pi Cycle Top
- Compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day average. When the faster line crossed above the slower one it landed within days of the 2013, 2017 and April 2021 cycle tops. It did not flag the November 2021 high, so treat it as one input, not a timer.
- Mayer Multiple
- Price divided by its 200-day moving average. Around 1 is average; historically readings above about 2.4 marked overheated stretches and below 0.8 marked deep value. Named after Trace Mayer.
- Power Law
- A straight-line fit of price against time on log-log axes (bitcoin’s age in days). The band shows where price has historically ranged around that trend. It is a curve fitted to the past, not a forecast.
- Stock-to-Flow
- A model that values bitcoin by its scarcity (existing supply ÷ new supply per year). Shown for history: price has run far below it since 2022.
- Events
- Prior cycle tops and bottoms (daily closes), the four halvings, Strategy’s first bitcoin purchase (11 Aug 2020, per its press release) and the launch of US spot bitcoin ETFs (11 Jan 2024, after SEC approval on 10 Jan).
- Compare
- Rebases each line to 100 at the start of the period so different prices can share one axis (S&P 500 cash index, gold, the US Dollar Index DXY, MSTR). A reading of 250 means the asset is up 150% since the start.
Sources: BTC-USD daily closes from Coinbase Exchange (since July 2015), live price from Coinbase; MSTR, S&P 500, gold and DXY daily closes from Yahoo Finance, refreshed weekly. Your chip choices are saved in this browser only; use Reset to clear them. Education only, not investment advice.